山东省工资对产业结构升级的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

Effects of Wage of Shandong on Industrial Structure Upgrading ——Analysis Based on VAR Model

通过使用风险价值(VAR)模型和脉冲响应函数对山东省1979—2010年间的工资与产业结构升级的动态关系进行了研究,结果表明,山东省工资水平的调整促进了产业结构合理的升级,两者之间长期存在稳定的协整互动关系;长期工资水平的调整促进了第二、三产业的发展,但对第一产业农业产生负效应,这主要是山东省第一产业自身发展落后的原因。最后根据实证结果提出了相应的政策建议。

With the development of economy, the industrial structure of Shandong Province has a reasonable up- grading. A lot of factors affect the upgrading of industrial structure, but this paper only makes an analysis from the perspective of wages. This paper uses vector autoregressive model （ VAM ） and impulse-response function analysis to reveal the Granger causality between wages and industrial structure over the period from 1979 to 2010 in Shandong Province, and they have stable correlation in long term, but in the long-term, the wage has the neg- ative effects on agriculture sector, because agricultural development lags behind in Shandong Province. As a re- sult, in the future economic development, we can promote the upgrading of industrial structure by adjusting rea- sonable wage level, and meanwhile, we must try our best to develop agriculture energetically to increase the first industrial technology level.