突发事件情景概率估计的主客观信息集成方法

Subjective and Objective Data Integration Method for Estimating Probabilities of Emergency Scenario

如何在突发事件发生之初,采用科学的方法估计不同情景发生的概率是正确选择应急决策方案的前提和关键。针对突发事件情景概率估计问题,提出了一种主客观信息集成方法。首先,采用相似度计算方法确定同类历史案例与当前突发事件的相似度,并依据相似度筛选得到相似历史案例,通过统计相似案例灾害情景确定当前突发事件各可能情景发生的客观概率;然后,采用线性加权方法对专家主观判断给出的情景概率信息进行集结得到当前突发事件各情景发生的主观概率;进一步地,通过集成客观和主观概率信息确定突发事件各情景发生的概率;最后,通过一个算例说明了本文提出方法的可行性与有效性。

How to estimate the probabilities of different scenarios scientifically in the beginning of emergency is a premise and key problem for emergency decision making. This paper proposes a method for estimating scenario probabilities by combining the subjective and objective data. In this method, firstly, the history eases are screened according to the calculated similarity degree between history cases and the current emergency event. Then, the objective scenario probabilities are calculated according to the statistics of scenario of similar cases. Furthermore, the subjective scenario probabilities are estimated according to the weighted average result of expert judgments. Moreover, scenario probabilities are obtained by integrating the subjective and objective scenario probabilities. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and significance of the proposed method.