摘要
在分析中国交通事故历史数据的基础上,引入灰色预测模型,根据数据特性建立了改进的灰色Verhulst模型,同时对改进的灰色Verhulst模型、灰色Verhulst模型和GM(1,1)模型进行比较。结果表明:改进的灰色Verhulst模型较好地反映了高速公路交通事故的发展趋势,提高了模型的预测精度,扩大了模型的适用范围。
On the basis of freeway traffic accidents data in China, introducing grey forecasting theory, grey Verhulst model according to data characteristics is constructs improved. Improved grey Verhulst model, grey Verhulst model and GM ( 1, 1 ) model are anal sized in the same time. The analysis results indicate that the prediction of improved grey Verhulst model reflects the development trend of freeway traffic accidents, improve the precision of fitting and forecasting of the model, and also extends its application range.
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2012年第19期4843-4846,共4页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
教育部人文社科基金(11YJC630034)
安徽省自然科学基金(1208085QG132)资助
关键词
交通事故
灰色系统理论
灰色预测
预测精度
traffic accidents grey system theory grey forecasting forecast precision