高速公路交通事故的灰色预测模型

Grey Prediction Model of Highway Traffic Accidents

在分析中国交通事故历史数据的基础上,引入灰色预测模型,根据数据特性建立了改进的灰色Verhulst模型,同时对改进的灰色Verhulst模型、灰色Verhulst模型和GM(1,1)模型进行比较。结果表明:改进的灰色Verhulst模型较好地反映了高速公路交通事故的发展趋势,提高了模型的预测精度,扩大了模型的适用范围。

On the basis of freeway traffic accidents data in China, introducing grey forecasting theory, grey Verhulst model according to data characteristics is constructs improved. Improved grey Verhulst model, grey Verhulst model and GM （ 1, 1 ） model are anal sized in the same time. The analysis results indicate that the prediction of improved grey Verhulst model reflects the development trend of freeway traffic accidents, improve the precision of fitting and forecasting of the model, and also extends its application range.