Markov分析法在企业经营中的应用

Application of Markov analytic approach into management practice

企业在生产经营中,常常需要对市场进行各种预测,其中对产品利润、产品销售、产品市场占有率等方面的预测较为重要.应用随机过程中的Markov链理论,构造相应的预测模型,就可预测企业"未来"所处状态,进而指导企业做出相应的经营调整,采用最优策略,最终使企业的利润最大化.通过实例分析,运用Markov分析法,对商品销售情况及企业利润进行预测,展示了市场经济预测与决策的全过程.Markov分析法简便易行、适用于经济预测的诸多方面,但由于应用Markov分析法前提要求过程具有Markov性,所以模型仍具有一定的局限性.

In management practice, usually need to forecast the important issues as manufactures profit, selling and percent of market share. With the knowledge of the stochastic process theory such as Markov chains , constructed different models to maker better decision -making so as to obtain more profit. This paper forecasted the selling of manufactures and showed the whole process of forecasting market and decision - making basing on examples with the method of Markov analytic approach. Markov analytic approach proved to be more easy, applied and effective. But it also needed to be improved for reason that the process must have Markov property.