影响华南沿海的热带气旋分析

Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the South China Coast

利用１９４９—１９９８年《台风年鉴》和气候与水文资料，对华南沿海的热带气旋作了统计分析，结果表明：登陆华南沿海的热带气旋是厄尔尼诺年较反厄尔尼诺年少，近期厄尔尼诺过程对热带气旋活动影响尤为明显。登陆各省区热带气旋的年际变化存在明显差异，月际变化是登陆的高峰月份较一致。登陆个数是广东省居多，广西区最少，登陆岸区较集中。影响华南沿海海区的台风，东部海区明显地少于西部海区。５０ａ间，我国台风最大风速和最大增水值均形成于登陆华南沿海的台风。

Based on the data from the typhoon yearbook and other climatological and hydrological data between 1949 and 1998, a statistical analysis is made of the tropical cyclones along the South China coast and the result shows that the tropical cyclones landing on the South China coast are fewer in El-Nino years than in La Nino years and that the influence of the recent El-Nino processes on the tropical cyclones is more conspicuous. There exists obvious difference in the annual variations of the tropical cyclones landing on the various provinces and regions while the monthly variations are more consistent in the peak months of landing. The number of landings is largest in Guangdong Province, smallest in the Guangxi Autonomous Region and the landing coastal areas are concentrated. The typhoons affecting the coastal sea area of South China are obviously fewer in the eastern sea area than those in the western sea area. In the part 50 years, the maximum wind speeds and the maximum set-ups of typhoons in China have all been generated from the typhoon landing on the Suoth China coast.