黄浦江风暴潮位、区间降雨量和上游来水量遭遇分析

Occurrence of Storm Tide Level, Regional Rainfall and Upstream Inflow of the Huangpujiang River

分析了黄浦江水位的主要影响因子及其相关关系，建立了黄浦江吴松口潮位与太湖地区降雨量的联合分布模型，计算出不同频率的吴淞口设计水位与不同频率的太湖地区设计降雨量及相应的黄浦江区间降雨量相遭遇的概率，并采用水动力学模型结合外包方法确定出相应组合频率下的黄浦江设计水面线，为上海市远期设防标准的确定提供决策支持，并为论证吴淞口建闸的必要比提供科学依据。

The statistical characteristics of the essential factors and their correlation, which have a grat impact on the water level of the Huangpujiang River,are analyzed in this paper.A joint probability distribution model of the tide level is established in the Wusongkou and the rainfall in the Taihu Lake area for calculating the probability of occurrence of the specified design tide level in Wusongkou,the design rainfall in Taihu Lake area and the corresponding rainfall in the reach.Furthermore,the design water level curve along the Huangpujiang River is obtained on the basis of employing a hydrodynamic model with the enveloping curve method.The results would help to determine the long-term flood protection criteria in Shanghai City and offer useful reference to the construction of the Wusong Storm Tide Gate.