新疆棉花生产的适度规模及其调控对策

THE MODERATE SCALE AND ADJUST CONTROLLING COUNTERMEASURES OF COTTON PRODUCTION IN XINJIANG

选取了反映生产优势、空间集聚、扩种潜力、规模潜力、饱和程度和生产潜力六项指标和合理的粮棉比例预测出新疆棉花生产潜力规模、合理规模 ,同时结合市场需求确定了新疆棉花生产的适度规模。认为合理布局棉花生产是基础 ,走优质高产低成本种植之路是关键 ,科学制定和运用棉花市场价格是前提 ,改革棉花流通体制和转变经营机制是途径。

Cotton is one of the economic crops with the most superiority in Xinjiang, which is one of the biggest three cotton regions in China. There exist many problems in cotton production in Xinjiang,such as water and land resources was used unreasonably,plant diseases and insect pests cotton field is becoming more and more seriously because of cotton areas are too large,the income of cotton production is going down yearly owing to the falling of cotton market price etc. Because of these factors,the cotton production in Xinjiang must have the moderate scale based strictly on the potential scale (according to the potential of agricultural resources) and the reasonable scale(refer to the reasonable crop proportion of grain to cotton ),and it must be smaller than the reasonable scale and more smaller than the potential scale. The moderate scale should be determined finally by the market and cotton price. After a series of analysis on inner outer national and regional cotton market and price,the potential scale of Xinjiang cotton region is calculated as 1.50×10 6 t and 1.06×10 6hm 2,and the reasonable scale is as 9.00×10 5hm 2 and 1.25×10 6t. The moderate scale of China is 4.50×10 6t ,and the moderate scale of Xinjiang is 1.20×10 6t and 8.00×10 5hm 2 based on the stable level of per yield of 1.50×10 3kg/ hm 2 . After extensive analysis on the existed problems mentioned above, the adjust controlling countermeasures of the cotton production of Xinjiang in the future are set forth as follow: reasonable distribution is the base,excellent quality higher productivity lower cost is the key point,scientific determination and utility of the cotton market price is the prerequisite,the reform of cotton exchange system and turning of administration mechanism is the approach.