全球格局下的中国经济走势

China's Economic Development Trend in the Global Situation

2012年,美国经济的增速将放缓,欧元区经济进入相对稳定期,日本经济会在一定程度内反弹,新兴经济体的增长速度也将趋缓,世界经济的整体增速将下滑,但不会衰退。在这种大环境下,2012年前4个月我国经济增长稳中趋缓,第二季度将延续减速态势。当前我国经济下行压力加大,稳增长尤显重要;物价较快上涨势头虽得到控制,但食品价格周期性大幅波动的深层次矛盾并未有效解决;节能减排任务艰巨;小微企业仍然困难,贷款难已转为生产经营规模的缩小。而且,刺激性政策逐步退出以及严厉的房地产调控政策将使经济增速进一步放缓;地方财政风险和土地市场交易趋冷对地方投融资能力形成制约;节能减排等对经济增长的质量提出新要求,将制约粗放型增长;资源、劳动力成本上升抬高了经济增长的成本;出口放缓对工业生产形成一定压力,进而导致经济增速放缓。同时,战略性新兴产业的相关规划陆续出台给经济增长增添新的动力;中西部不断承接东部产业转移,逐步成为带动经济增长的新亮点;消费水平将保持稳步增长。综合来看,2012年中国经济增长将呈"前低后高"的态势。

In 2012, the growth rate of American economy will slow down; the economic development in Eurozone will be stable; Japanese economy will rebound; the growth rate of emerging economic entities will slow down; and the growth rate of the world economy as a whole will go down, but there will be no economic recession. In this situation, in the first four months of 2012, the economic growth of China is stable with slight decline and this trend will be maintained in the second quarter. With the considerable pressure, the stable economic growth is becoming more important; thought the rapidly rising CPI has been controlled, the deep-rooted conflict of the periodical food price fluctuation has not been solved; energy saving and emission reduction is still an arduous task; there are still so many problems with the small and micro enterprises and the shrinking scale will become the most serious difficulty. Moreover, the economic growth will be further slowed down because of the phased out stimulus policies and the severe regulatory policy of the real estate market; local financial risk and the cooling down land transaction will constrain local capability for investment and financing; energy saving and emission reduction will impose more requirement on the quality of economic growth and constrain the extensive growth; the upsurging cost of resources and labor increases the cost of economic growth; the slowing down export imposes some pressure on industrial production which will lead to the slowed down economic growth. At the same time, the introduction of related regulations of the strategic emerging industries will bring new driving forces for economic growth; the industrial transfer from the eastern to central and western regions will gradually become the new highlight of economic growth; and the consumption level will be improved stably. Generally speaking, the economic growth in China in 2012 will demonstrate the trend of ＂slowing down first and going up later＂.