沈阳市流行性感冒监测数据的早期预警效果

Effect of early warning based on influenza surveillance data in Shenyang City

目的利用现有的流行性感冒(流感)监测数据,探讨流感早期预警指标及其在2009年甲型流感大流行中的预警效果。方法选用沈阳18所哨点医院门诊流感样病例既往监测数据,采用控制图法,建立预警线,对2009和2010年的流感样病例百分比(ILI%)数据进行拟合,并结合新甲型H1N1疫情和病原学监测结果综合分析其早期预警效果。结果控制图法显示,ILI%较病原学监测和大疫情数据提前1周超过警戒线,ILI%趋势于新甲型H1N1疫情、流感病毒检出率变化趋势基本一致。结论 ILI%作为流感活动的监测指标较为可靠,控制图法可作为流感大流行敏感有效的早期预警指标。

[Objective]By using current influenza surveillance data,to study the indexes of early influenza warning and its effect in the pandemic（H1N1）2009 in Shenyang City.[Methods]The preexistent surveillance data of influenza-like illness in clinics of 18 sentinel hospitals in Shenyang City were collected,and the control chart method was used for establishing the warning line.The rate of influenza-like illness（ILI%） in 2009 and 2010 was fitted into models,and the early warning effect was analyzed on the basis of the pandemic data of new influenza A（H1N1） and the pathogenic surveillance results.[Results]Compared with the pathogenic surveillance and the pandemic data,ILI% exceeded the warning line one week early.The trend of ILI% was approximately consistent with the trend of new influenza A（H1N1） epidemic and the detection rate of influenza virus.[Conclusion]ILI% is a reliable surveillance index of influenza,and the control chart method is the sensitive and effective index for early warning of influenza pandemic.