债务危机下欧盟经济实力走势与中国的战略选择

The European Union’ s State of the Economy Amid Debt Crisis and China’ s Strategic Options

欧债危机持续恶化，既因欧元的“先天缺陷”，也有当局的政策失误，危机在未来相当长一段时间将难有明显改善。在债务危机阴影下，创新能力受挫、福利体制拖累、经济治理缺陷、战略资源有限四大结构性因素决定欧盟经济实力将处于下滑态势。欧洲“衰落”将恶化中国外部经济环境，中国宜在战略上妥善应对。

The European debt crisis continues to take a turn for the worse because of the inborn weaknesses of the euro and poor policy decision-making by the relevant authorities as well. That crisis will last for a rather long period of time without making noticeable improvement in the future. In the shadow of the debt crisis, the EU ' s economic strength will sag and suffer an irreversible slow downturn, to be caused by the following four structural factors: its innovative capabilities showing a steady decrease; its welfare system becoming a millstone around its neck; its governance of the economy being weak and feeble and its strategic resources being limited. A 'declining' Europe will aggravate China' s external economic environment and so China ought to work out a strategy for meeting with any eventualities.