我国货币供应与投资的关系问题研究

Relationship between Money Supply and Investment in China

本文将我国货币供应、投资支出和经济增长纳入统一模型,实证分析了三个变量之间的关系。研究发现:无论从长期还是短期来看,投资、货币供给拉动经济增长的作用都不能达到因果检验的显著性要求,反映了我国经济的价格弹性较高,投资的高速增长不能完全解释我国经济增长的动力源泉;我国投资高速增长的根源来自经济增长形成的高储蓄,而非货币刺激;货币供应高速增长在很大程度上是被动适应投资和经济发展需求的增长。因此,我国货币政策制定应以保持投资和经济增长稳定发展为重要目标,而不应以刺激投资与经济增长为目的,否则可能会引致通货膨胀上升,增加经济运行成本和降低经济发展质量。应保持基础领域和改革创新领域投资增速的稳定,并鼓励和引导民间投资,改善国内投资环境,以增强经济发展的活力。

This paper brings China＇s money supply, investment expenditure and economic growth into a model, and makes an empirical study on the relationship among the three variables. The study shows that, whether in the long term or in the short term, the effect of investment spending and money supply on stimulating economic growth can＇t meet the significant standard of causality test. It reflects that the price elasticity of China economy is high, and the rapid growth of investment is not the main driving force for China＇s economic growth. It certifies that the root of the rapid growth of China＇s investment is the large savings from economic growth, rather than the stimulus of money. The rapid growth of money supply is adapted passively to the needs of investment and economic development. Therefore, the formulation of China＇s monetary policy should focus on maintaining the stable growth of investment and economy, rather than on stimulating investment and economic growth. Otherwise, it will lead to rising inflation which will increase the costs of economic operation, and reduce the quality of economic development. We should also maintain investment growth rate in the field of infrastructure and innovation, encourage and guide civil investment, and improve domestic investment environment to enhance dynamics of economic growth.