三江平原气温降水变化分析--以建三江垦区为例

Variations of temperature and precipitation in Sanjiang Plain:A case study of Jiansanjiang reclamation areas

气温及降水与人类生产生活密切联系,其变化必然会对生态系统和社会经济等产生重大影响。利用三江平原建三江垦区15个农场气象站1965～2002年气温和降水资料,运用气候趋势系数和一元回归分析法进行气候变化分析。结果表明:近40年来本区气温呈显著上升趋势,平均气温以0.50℃/10a幅度升高,不同季节平均气温均呈上升趋势,且冬季增幅最大,达0.82℃/10a。气温升高存在显著的区域差异,最大的增温中心位于南部边缘,气温倾向率大于0.60℃/10a。降水趋势性变化不显著,但仍呈弱减少趋势,年降水量倾向率为-1.90mm/10a,四季降水量以秋季减少最为显著。在此基础上进行气候突变分析,结果表明气温突变出现在1987年,降水突变出现在1980年和1997年,但降水突变不明显。研究三江平原建三江垦区的气候变化对于保障区域粮食安全具有重要的指导意义。

Temperature and precipitation have great influence on ecological system and social economy. Under the background of the global warming, concerning the regional characteristics of regional land use and land cover change, the climate change in Jiansanjiang reclamation areas was analyzed. According to the monthly data of air temperature and precipitation of 15 meteorological stations from 1965 to 2002 in Jiansanjiang reclamation areas, some classical statistical methods were used to explore the characteristics of climate change, such as trend, correlative correlation, climate variation analyses and climate elements cumulative test curve and so on. The statistics of some climatic factors such as mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature and precipitation were gathered in the light of year and season, and their changes during 40 years were analyzed. The results showed that there was a 0.50℃/10a increase in the mean annual temperature in the last 40 years. Seasonal temperature had a rising trend, and the temperature increased by 0.82℃/10a in winter, higher than that in other seasons. In the southern margin area, the increase of temperature was higher than 0.60℃/10a, while in the northeastern part of the region, it was lower than 0.35℃/10a. There was only a slight increasing tendency for annual precipitation, and the tendency ratio was 1.90 mm/10a. Annual precipitation in northwest and southern rim was in the decline. Most of the rest of the regions were precipitation increasing areas. Spring, autumn and winter precipitation presented a reducing tendency except that of summer. Climate elements cumulative test curve and test signal of noise ratio （S/N） were used to analyze climate mutation. The result showed that precipitation mutation occurred in 1980 and 1997, and the precipitation had not a significant abrupt change. The increase of the temperature led to both an increase in crop yields and a crop pattern change, while the decrease of the precipitation caused a reduction in the natural wetland area. Thus the methods of land use were changed.