基于少量探测车的城市路段平均行程时间估计

Urban Road Link Travel Time Estimation Using Small-Sized Probe Reports

与传统的固定式采集系统(感应线圈等)比较,探测车系统具有直接采集行程时间、时空覆盖范围广等优点。研究少量探测车情况下的路段行程时间估计问题对降低探测车系统的运营费用具有重要意义。在发现停车组和非停车组的行程时间均值、非停车组所占百分比等3个参数之间关联关系的基础上,提出了在极小样本情况下估计城市路段平均行程时间的方法。基于微观交通仿真的比较分析显示,该方法优于通过样本均值估计平均路段行程时间的方法,特别是当交通状况处于拥挤情况下其优势更为明显。

Compared with traditional traffic detectors,the probe vehicle system（PVS） can collect the travel time directly and cover broader in space and time span.However,a new method to estimate link travel time is needed to cut down the operation cost of PVS.This paper proposes a method using a very small-sized sample,based on the correlations among the mean link travel time of the stop group and the nonstop group,the proportion of nonstop group and the others.This method is examined by a simulation model.The results show that the proposed method is superior to traditional methods,especially for the congested traffic.