中国经济长期增长趋势与短期波动

The Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Fluctuations of Chinese Economy

实现中国经济的可持续增长的目标,必须明了中国经济未来的变动趋势,厘清中国经济长期增长趋势与短期波动背后的决定因素。从长期看,劳动力供给数量、资本形成以及全要素生产率增长率都处于下降趋势中,这意味着中国经济增长的长期动力正趋于下降,而经济增长的环境成本正在上升,因此,中国经济如何面对转型将是我们必须考虑的问题。就短期来说,2012年,中国经济受到外部和内部各方面的冲击很大,不论是财政政策还是货币政策,政府经济政策的有效性和操作空间正在萎缩,使得中国经济增长在短期内面临较大的挑战。由于中国经济目前缺乏可持续的增长动力,必须实行市场化为导向的改革,以政府职能转变为前提条件,以要素市场化改革为主线,增强市场活力,促进资产的资本化进程,提高市场运行效率,尤其是应以土地资产的资本化为切入点、以金融市场利率市场化为条件,进一步加快劳动力要素流动,促进中国经济的可持续增长。

This paper analyzes the long-run growth and short-run fluctuations of the Chinese economy. In the long run, economic transition comprises a great challenge as growth engines are deteriorating and ecological costs are increasing. In the short run, domestic and external shocks impede the effectiveness of public policies and compress the room for government intervention. Our research suggests that sustained growth of the Chinese economy can only be achieved through the deepening of structural and market-oriented reforms, especially in the factor market.