摘要
基于水基系统概念和内涵建立了东江流域水基系统健康评价指标体系,应用层次分析法得到各指标权重,根据系统动力学方法构建了东江流域水基系统健康评价模型,以东江流域2005、2010年资料为基础,利用系统动力学模型模拟了东江流域水基系统在不同情景模式下2011～2030年的健康状态,得到不同模式下各指标的变化趋势;并对各指标进行反馈调节以促使东江流域水基系统朝健康、稳定的方向发展。
According to the concept and connotation of base-system of water, the health evaluation index system of the base-system of water for Dongjiang basin is established. And the weights of indexes are obtained by using the AHP method. On the basis of system dynamics method, health evaluation model of the base-system of water for Dongjiang ba- sin is developed. Based on the data of 2005 and 2010, health states of base-system of water for Dongjiang basin from 2011 to 2030 under different scenarios are simulated with the system dynamics model, and the change trends of indexes are ob- tained. By controlling the changes of indexes, it makes the base-system of water for Dongjiang basin towards a healthy and stable direction development.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第7期1-5,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
水利部水资源费基金资助项目(1261130111042)
广东省科技计划基金资助项目(2010B031900022)
华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室自主研究课题基金资助项目(2012CZ09)
关键词
东江流域
水基系统
系统动力学
健康状态评价
Dongiiang basin
base-system of water
system dynamics
health state assessment
