淮河流域主汛期降水演变规律研究

Study on Precipitation Evolution Rule of Huaihe River Basin in Main Flood Period

基于淮河流域1953～2007年主汛期(6～8月)的降水量资料,分析了流域内淮河水系和沂沭泗水系主汛期降水量的趋势性、突变性和周期性变化规律。结果表明,两水系6～8月的总降雨均呈减少趋势,但淮河水系6月呈增加趋势,沂沭泗水系6、8月无显著变化;两水系主汛期的降水过程并非是一个完全独立的随机过程,除淮河水系7月表现为负持续性外,两水系其他各月均表现为正持续性;淮河水系6月、沂沭泗水系7月降水量发生显著性突变,但两者的突变性质相反,突变后淮河水系6月的降水量增加了24%,而沂沭泗水系7月降水量减少了19%;淮河水系和沂沭泗水系主汛期均具有8年的主周期,淮河水系主汛期各月的丰枯交替频率较沂沭泗水系高,但淮河水系各月的周期性变化与整个汛期周期性变化规律的一致性较差,而沂沭泗水系较好。

Based on the precipitation data （1953-2007） during flood season （June-August） in Huaihe River Basin, the trend, sudden change point and periodicity of precipitation series in Huaihe River and Yishusi River system is analyzed. The results show that the precipitation series during the flood season of two basins have a decreasing trend, but the Hua- ihe River system increases in June and the Yishusi River system has no obvious change in June and August; the precipita- tion series during the flood season of two basins are not a completely independent random process; in addition to the Huai River system is negative persistence in July, other months in two basins is positive persistence; the precipitation series in June of the Huaihe River system and in July of Yishusi River system appears drastic changes, that is, the precipitation in Huaihe River system increases 24% and the Yishusi River system reduces 19%; the main period of precipitation series in total flood season is 8-years in two basins; the periodic characteristics of the Huaihe River system for each separated month and the whole flood season are significantly different, but in the Yishusi River system it is similar.