我国实际低生育水平的影响因素分析——邦戈茨低生育率模型应用

The Influentials of Actual Birth Level in Low Desired Fertility Condition in Our Country:Using Bongaarts Low Fertility Model

本文使用2010年江苏省六县市"生育意愿与生育行为研究"跟踪调查数据,应用邦戈茨低生育率模型,对已基本完成生育周期且可生育二孩妇女的实际生育水平的影响因素进行了分析。在以意愿生育水平为参照的条件下,研究发现,初育年龄推迟、教育水平提高,工作压力等都对妇女的实际生育水平产生了显著的抑制作用。

Based on the tracking survey data of ＂fertility desire and behavior＂ conducted in six counties and cities of Jiangsu province in 2010, this paper adopts the Bongaarts Low Fertility Model to analyze the influentials of actual birth level of Chinese women who have basically finished the fertility cycle and can give birth to a second-child. With the reference of the contemporary desired fertility level, the results show that the delay of initial reproductive age, the rising level of education and working pressure play a significantly negative effect on women＇s actual birth level.