基于六普、五普的城镇化人口统计数据修补

The Revision for the Rate of Urbanization:Based on the Data of the Five Census and the Six Census

由于城镇人口统计口径频繁变化,导致主要年度之间不同口径城镇化人口比重数据出现差值,必须进行科学修正,而已有的修正方案均存在一定缺陷。本文根据我国现有城镇人口数据特点提出了更完善的城镇人口比重数据修正方案:其一,以月度作为两个代表期间的细分时段,利用联合国城镇人口比重预测法估算期间各年度城镇化理论值;其二,再以各年度基于人口变动抽查的城镇化速度对城镇化理论值进行校正,得到既具有同一统计口径又反映年度实际波动的各年度城镇人口比重数据。并且利用该方案对1991～1999年、2006～2009年城镇人口比重数据进行了有效修正。

As the urban population statistical classfication among the change frequently, there are great difference rate of urbanization based on the data with different statistical classfication, and must be scientifically correct. Despite some revision schemes have been proposed, there are some defects. According to China＇s urban population data characteristics, this paper presents a more comprehensive data correction scheme. First, use monthly as the segmentation period between the two representative point of time, to estimate the annual theory value of urbanization. Second, correct the theory value with the urbanization speed. And in this paper, using the method, the author also effectively revised the data of the rate of urbanization during 1991 -1999, 2006 -2009.