谚语“谣言止于智者”的定量模型研究

Study on Quantitative Model for Proverb of " Rumor is Stopped by the Intellect"

谚语"谣言止于智者"是在实践中谣言控制的经验总结,侧重定性概括。论文结合定量动力学模型进一步阐述谚语的理论意义,利用微分动力系统理论研究了谣言的传播规律,探讨谣言传播的最终稳定性状态,得到了谣言是否蔓延的阈值。通过对参数的控制,可以调整谣言控制策略,为管理者在舆论控制决策中提供理论支持和决策依据。

The proverb of ＂ rumor is stopped by the intellect＂ is the sum in rumor controlling practice, and the qualita- tive analysis is the mainstream. The paper proposes the quantitative analysis with the support of the dynamic mathematics model . It analyzes the status and stability of the rumor spreading by the theory of differential dynamical system. The pa- per also discusses the propagation regularity of rumors and obtained the thresholds, the control policies for rumor sprea- ding by adjusting the parameters. The results of the thesis will provide the theoretical support to rumor control and can give reference to the public opinions management of decision maker.