全球气候变化下秦岭南北气温变化特征

The Characteristics of Temperature Change in Qinling Mountains

选取秦岭南麓1 000 m划分方案,运用气候倾向率、线性拟合方程、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、小波分析等气候数理统计方法,分析秦岭南北气温变化特征。结果表明:近50 a秦岭南北气候变化具有同步性,增温趋势明显;在气温突变方面,关中地区气温突变(1995年)早于陕南(1998年)。通过近10 a秦岭南北气温时空格局演变分析,认为秦岭地区气温变化符合全球变化规律,其变化是自然因素和人类活动共同作用的结果,在小尺度上人类活动干扰尤为明显(特别体现在快速城市化影响气温上升)。

Qinling range has been recognized as the geo-ecological boundary between subtropical and warm-temperate zones in the eastern China, which is the advantage of regional area to study global change. This article, based on the meteorological data of the 61 meteorological stations in the northern and southern re- gions of the Qinling Mountains （1961-2009）, selecting the contour 1 000 m in southern piedmont as the ecolog- ical boundary line, analyzed the fundamental characteristics, spatio-temporal distribution and reasons of tem- perature change using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation test, analysis of wavelets, Kriging interpolation and other Climate diagnosis method. The results show that the average temperature, extreme high and low temperature in the south and north Qinling Mountains were in increase trend, but there was a certain difference in the sharp change time and range. The tilt rate of annual average temperature in the south of Qin- ling Mountains is the lowest （0.121 ℃/10 a）, then is in the north of Qinling Mountains （0.203℃/10 a）, and they all lower than the other regions of China （0.26±0.032℃/10 a）. The temperature mutation of the north of Qin- ling Mountains （1995） occurred earlier than that of the sorth （1998）, which was later than the other regions of China （1993）. Based the climate characteristics, it was found that the influence of climate change mainly re- flects nature and human activities.