中国政府投资对民间投资影响的空间效应——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

The Spatial Effect of Government Investment on Private Investment——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Provinces

通过构建空间计量模型,实证分析了中国政府投资对民间投资影响的空间效应。经验分析结果表明,政府投资对民间投资有非常显著的正空间效应。国民生产总值和外商直接投资在总体上与民间投资呈正相关关系,税负水平与民间投资呈负相关关系,符合理论预期。分地区和分时段的实证结果表明,东部和西部的民间投资具有空间依赖性,东部各省区的民间投资之间存在负相关关系,西部的民间投资存在正空间效应。

Using SAR and SEM model, this paper analyzes the spatial effect of government investment on private investment in China. The empirical results show that the govern- ment investment has positive and significant spatial effect on private investment. GDP and FDI have positive effect on private investment, and there is negative relationship between tax and private investment. The sub -sample of three regions results show that the private investment has negative spatial effect on adjacent provinces for east region, while the private investment has positive spatial effect on adjacent provinces for west region.