货币政策影响通胀的非对称性效应研究——基于预期通胀率不同水平的分析

A Study on the Asymmetric Effect of Monetary Policies on the Inflation——Analysis on Different Levels of Expectant Inflation Rates

采用LSTR模型实证分析了各种货币政策工具在不同通胀预期环境下治理通胀的效果。研究发现:中国货币政策对通胀水平存在显著的非对称性影响;当预期通胀率低于2.1%时,减少货币供应量比提高利率更容易有效控制通胀水平;当预期通胀率在2.1%～4.2%之间时,利率和货币供应量两种工具都能有效治理通胀;当预期通胀率大于4.2%时,利率工具治理通胀的效果好于货币供应量。

In this article, the LSTR model is applied for measuring the effect of monetary policy tools under diverse inflation expectations. Finally, we find that our monetary policies experienced an apparently asymmetric effect. That is, if the expectant inflation rate is below 2.1%, the decrease of monetary supply works better than the increase of interest rate in managing the inflation rates;if such rate is between 2.1% and 4.2% ,both two tools do;while if such rate is above 4.2% ,the tool of interest rate works better than monetary supply.