短期气候预测的评估问题

EVALUATION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION

该文系统地介绍了国内外评估月、季尺度短期气候预测结果的方法 ,比较了相关系数(R)、预报技巧分 (S)和准确率 (P)的特点 ,并对当前国内外气候预测业务水平进行了分析 ,着重对大气环流、气温、降水及 ENSO的预测水平进行了评估 ,指出国内外月、季尺度的降水预报的水平目前在 55%～ 60 %左右 ,对 ENSO的发生、结束和强度的预报水平有限 .文中探讨了短期气候预测的可预报性问题 ,提出月、季尺度气候预测的可预报性的理论上限可能为 6～ 1 2月 ,准确率在 80 %～ 85%之间 .

The methods for evaluating the level of short term climate prediction are introduced. Then the characteristics of relative coefficient ( R ), skill scores ( S ) and accuracy ( P ) are compared, and the level of present prediction is shown. Finally, the predictability of short term climate forecast is discussed, and it is pointed out that the theoretical limit of the lead time in monthly and seasonal scale prediction is about 6 12 months and that of the accuracy ( P ) is 80% 85%.