CCA对中国夏季降水场的预报试验和诊断结果

FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS AND DIAGNOSTIC RESULTS OF THE CCA MODEL ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OF CHINA

该文将典型相关分析应用于中国汛期的降水场预报 ,并对其进行了独立样本检验和回报检验 ,试验结果表明 ,本模式对我国汛期的降水有较好的预报能力 .文章对模式的输出量对我国夏季的降水场及其影响因子进行了诊断分析 ,从而加深了对我国短期气候变化的理解 .

WT5BZ] A CCA statistical model is constructed to forecast the summer precipitation of China. To test the effectiveness of the model, individual sample tests and hindcast tests are made. The results indicate that the model performs well in the forecasting of summer precipitation of China. According to the output of the model, the relationship between the precipitation and its influence factors is diagnosed so as to enhance the understanding of the short range climate change of China.