摘要
该工作提出了以历史预报评估参数为权重的权重分布客观集成预报方法 ,用该方法对 6种汛期预报方法 1 984～ 1 998年和 8个单位 1 995～ 1 998年的汛期预报进行了集成预报试验 .结果表明 ,经权重分布集成预报以后预测水平有明显提高 ,而且效果相对稳定 .权重分布集成预报方法指导思想明确 ,可行性强 。
By taking the historical forecast score parameters as weights, the objective weighting distribution ensemble forecast method is designed. The new technique has been applied to the ensemble forecast experiments of six methods used in the flood period forecasts of 1984—1998 and of 1995—1998 conducted by eight institutions. The results show that the forecasts are stable and improved remarkably. The method is rational in theory and feasible in practice, and thus suitable for operational forecast.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第A06期51-57,共7页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家"九五"重中之重科技攻关项目!"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"96-90 8-0 4 -0 1专题资助
关键词
集成预报
权重分布
试验
预报评分
天气预报
Ensemble forecast Weighing distribution Experiment Forecast score
