基于协整检验的江苏省碳排放强度影响因素分析

An Analysis of Influence Factors on Carbon Intensity of Jiangsu Province Based on Co-integration Test

文章首先利用pearson关联度分析,从可能影响江苏省碳排放强度的七个因素中筛选出与碳排放强度相关度最高的前三个变量:能源强度、第三产业比重和外贸依存度,然后采用协整分析方法研究三个变量和碳排放强度之间的长期均衡关系,得到协整模型和向量误差修正模型,同时进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析。结论为江苏省碳排放强度与能源强度、第三产业比重之间存在正向影响关系,碳排放强度与外贸依存度之间存在负向影响关系。鉴于分析结果,建议从提高能源效率、第三产业低碳化和优化对外贸易结构三个方面降低江苏省碳排放强度。

Firstly, the paper took the Pearson correlation degree analysis between carbon intensity and seven possible influence factors, and selected the first three high correlation degree variables, which are energy efficiency, industry stnlcture and foreign trade dependency. Then based on the integration test, the paper studied the long-term equilibrium relation between the earbon intensity and the three variables, obtaining the co-integration model and the vector error correlation model, and researched the impulse response function and variance decomposition. The conclusion is that the energy intensity and the proportion of tertiary. industry had positive effects on carbon intensity, while the foreign trade dependency had a negative effect on carbon intensity. In view of the result, the paper suggested that reducing the carbon intensity from three aspects, which were enhancing energy utilization efficiency, ensuring the low-carbon of the tertiary industry, and optimizing the foreign trade structure.