2011—2050年云南省人口红利预测分析

On the Prediction of Yunnan's Demographic Dividend in the Years from 2011 to 2050

以云南省"六普"数据为基础,运用CPPS方法对云南省2011—2050年的人口红利进行预测。预测结果显示,云南人口红利的特点主要是:开启时间晚,闭合时间早;红利期短,约36年,其中真正人口红利期为21年。据此探讨了人口红利的制约因素,并提出延长和拓宽人口红利的对策建议。

The 6th census data Yunnan together with the method of CPPS（Chinese population predict system） is used to predict demographic dividend of the province in the years from 2011 to 2050.The prediction shows the features： the provincial demographic window will be open late and closed early;the duration of this period is not long,about 36 years including 21 years as the real period of the dividend.Then the mechanism for the population bonus is discussed and measures are put forward in order to extend the time period.