ARIMA模型在楚雄市年平均气温预测中的应用研究

The application of ARIMA model in the prediction of Annual average temperature of Chuxiong City

文章运用时间序列ARIMA模型的建模方法对云南省楚雄市1961年到2010年年平均气温进行分析研究,通过SAS软件建立了ARIMA(p,d,q)时间序列模型,同时运用建立的模型对楚雄市未来4年的年平均气温值进行了预测;本文的研究结果对当地工农业生产、人民生活具有一定参考价值。

This paper applies modeling method of time series ARIMA model to analyze the average temperature from 1961--2010 of Chuxiong City, and to establish ARIMA （p,d,q） time series model by the SAS software. Meanwhile, using established model forecast future 4 years average temperature. This research results has certain reference value on the local industrial, agricultural production and people＇s life.