中国最优货币政策规则选择——基于新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型分析

On the Choice of Optimum Monetary Policy Rule in China——Based on the Research of New Keynesian DSGE Model

产出和通货膨胀对货币政策冲击的响应程度和时滞取决于货币政策规则,在非紧刹车或急扭转情况下,利率规则比货币供应量规则更为有效;在技术冲击和政府支出冲击下,利率规则能使实体经济平滑地趋于稳态水平,而货币供应量规则需经历多轮周期性调整后才能趋于稳态水平;同时,运用利率规则的社会福利损失显著低于运用货币供应量规则的社会福利损失。因此利率规则显著优于货币供应量规则。

The response extent and period of the output and inflation to monetary policy shocks depend on the monetary policy rules. The interest rate rule is usually more effective than the money supply rule unless in a tight brake or a shm]） reverse case. Under the impact of technology shocks and government expenditure shocks, the interest rate x~]e can make the economy smoothly tend to the steady - state level, while the money supply rule will undergo several rounds of cyclical adjustment before arriving at the steady - state level. In the meanwhile, the social welfare loss of interest rate rule was significantly lower than that of the money supply rule. Therefore, the interest rate ride is significantly better than the money supply rule.