货币国际化与股票市场发展关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Relations Between Currency Internationalization and Stock Market

对1999～2010年美国、欧元区、日本和英国股票市场的发展与各自货币国际化程度的关系进行研究,发现,货币国际化和股票市场两者之间相互影响的关系是比较显著的。一方面,货币国际化进程与股票市场发展受到银行提供信贷资金等因素的共同影响;这些因素带来了股票市场的发展,却抑制了货币国际化进程的深入。另一方面,实际利率、国家贸易总额等其他一些因素却难以兼顾货币国际化进程的推进和股票市场规模的扩大。通过稳健性检验发现,影响货币国际化推进的因素受到了区位差别的影响,而影响股票市场发展规模的因素却不会受到区位差别的影响。中国需要继续在保持经济快速稳定增长的同时发展国内的股票市场,抑制国内银行信贷资金规模增加的趋势,走出一条独具特色的人民币国际化之路。

This paper studies the development level of the stock market and the degree of currency internationalization based on the data of 1999 - 2010. It is found that there is an inter-acting influence between the development levels of stock market and the currency internationalization. On one hand, some factors inhibit the development of their process, but, these factors give an impetus to the development of stock market, and bring down the currency internationalization. On the other hand, some trade have no effect on the process. It is found that the other factors such as real interest rates and international location factor would have an influence on the currency intemationalization, but not on the stock market through robust test. As for promoting mechanism for the internation-alization of the RMB, this paper believes that China needs to give priority to the economic development and the stock market and arrest the growth of the credit funds.