中国对外资产和负债的结构分析

A Structural Analysis of China's International Assets and Liabilities

在分析中国的国家对外资产负债表的基础上,构建了中国1984—2009年的国际投资头寸序列表,分析了中国对外各项资产与负债结构及其变化趋势。数据的特征和变化趋势显示,由于对外资产和对外负债的持有部门不匹配、国际投资头寸表使用美元当作计价单位以及外汇储备的不合理投资,中国的对外资产和负债存在结构性风险,人民币对主要货币的升值将不可避免地带来国际投资头寸表上的净损失以及外汇储备的大幅缩水。最后提出要增加进口和对外投资、增强外汇储备管理,进一步建设中国资本市场。

On the analysis of Chinese national foreign assets and liabilities, the paper sets up the International Invest- ment Position of China from 1984 to 2009, and analyzes the structures of the assets and liabilities and their tendency. Furthermore, the characteristics of the data show that there are some structural risks in China＇s foreign assets and lia- bilities due to the unmatched sectors holding the assets and liabilities respectively, the dollar-denominated Interna- tional Investment Position and the unreasonable investment of the foreign reserves. Finally, our findings also suggest that China should increase the quantity of its imports and outward investment, enhance foreign exchange reserve man- agement and further develop China＇s capital market.