我国通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在门槛效应吗——基于省级动态面板平滑转换模型的实证分析

DOES THERE EXIST THRESHOLD EFFECTS OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA ——Empirical Analysis on Dynamic Panel Smooth Transition Model

本文利用动态面板平滑转换模型,发现我国通胀率对经济增长存在非线性门槛效应。从东部、中部和西部来看,其门槛值依次上升,但通胀率对经济增长的影响速度却依次下降。在通胀率较低时,无论是当年还是上年通胀率,对经济增长都有促进作用;但随着通胀率的上升,虽然当年通胀率对经济还具有一定的促进作用,但上年通胀率对经济增长开始呈现较大的负向作用,两者间表现为左高右低非对称的"U"形。另外,经济增长的可持续在一定程度上也受通胀率的影响,并在东部、中部和西部表现出不同的特征。因此,央行应致力于降低通胀率来促进经济增长,并根据区域情况不同实施差异化的货币政策。

By applied the dynamic panel smooth transition model,this paper found the nonlinear threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in China.The values of threshold increased and the inflation effects on growth decreased from the eastern,to the middle and to the western part of China.When inflation kept at are lative low level,moderate inflation had positive effects on economic growth.As while as inflation increased,the inflation of the same year still had positive effects,but the inflation of last year had negative effects.The relationship between inflation and economic growth showed U-shape.Additionally,the sustainability of economic growth was also influenced by inflation,and showed different characteristics in different part of China.Therefore the central bank of China should lower inflation for economic growth,and carry out different monetary policies in different regions.