城市综合承灾能力评价的粒子群优化投影寻踪模型

Evaluation Method of Urban Comprehensive Disaster-carrying Capability Based on PSO-PPE

针对城市综合承灾能力评价的多因素影响问题,建立了城市综合承灾能力评价的粒子群优化投影寻踪模型.该方法依据样本自身的数据特性,利用粒子群优化算法寻求投影寻踪评价模型的最佳投影方向,并通过投影方向计算反映评价样本综合特征信息的投影特征指标,然后根据投影特征指标值进行城市综合承灾能力评价分析,因而避免了诸如各评价因素权重确定的主观性.实例分析结果与各城市承灾能力实际状态基本一致,显示了该方法能利用一个综合反映多因素之间复杂关系的特征指标给出相应的评价等级结果,且根据计算结果可以分析影响城市综合承灾能力的主要因素.

The projection pursuit evaluation model is applied to study the problem of multi-factor evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster-carrying capability. Projection pursuit can project high dimensional data to low dimensional space, and meanwhile particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize its projection direction. Through studying the main characteristics in 1-D space, the key information in the original data can be obtained, which can be used to classify or evaluate urban comprehensive disaster-carrying capability. In addition, with application of this method, the subjectivity of safety factors can also be effectively eliminated. The results of case study show that the analysis results are completely consistent with the actual situation, so the method can construct a characteristic index, and the main impact effects can be analyzed according to the result. The model is qualified with simplicity and can provide a new approach for evaluating urban disaster-carrying capability.