中国土地市场化测度方法与实证研究

Measurement Methods of Land Marketization in China

构建科学、客观、易判的土地市场化测度方法,有助于理解和分析我国土地资源配置的时空差异。本文在归纳总结已有测算方法的基础上,提出价款加权修正宗数比重测度法和实际-理想价款比值测度法,并以2000年-2009年中国土地市场化发展为实证,比较不同方法的特征、适用范围、结果的共性和差异。研究结果表明,2000年-2009年中国土地市场化指数呈现震荡上升的态势,2006年前后土地市场化指数较大幅度的增长;宗数比重测度法和面积比重测度法仅考虑了完全市场下的土地供应,不适用于土地市场化的专题研究;静态系数宗数比重测度法适用于短时间序列的研究,而价款加权修正宗数比重测度法适宜于较小尺度、土地供应类型趋于一致的区域研究。各供地类型的市场化权重需考虑历年供地类型的实际效果,从土地资本显化视角出发的实际-理想价款比值测度法可以更为客观、直接的反映土地市场化程度。

Constructing a scientific, objective and easy-calculating measurement method of land marketization will help us to understand and analyze the spatial and temporal differences in land resources allocation of China. In this paper, on the basis of summarizing the measurement methods of land marketization, we first made annual amendment to the weights of land maketization and put forward the plot number measurement method based on dynamic coefficient and the scale measurement method based on dynamic coefficient. Then we compared the characteristics, range of applications, similarities and differences of the results of different methods based on empirical study of land market development in China from 2000 to 2009. Methods of literature study, comparative analysis and empirical analysis were employed. The results indicate that： from 2000 to 2009, land marketization index in China showed a rising trend with fluctuations; with the improvement of land supply policy, land marketization index increased most significantly around the year of 2006, which imply that the administrative intervention of government has gradually decreased while the dominance of market behavior has been continually strengthened. The plot number measurement method based on static coefficient ignores that the marketization degree of land supply type may change over time and lack the measurement of land lease, thus can be applied to short time series study. The plot number measurement method based on dynamic coefficient is suitable for regional study of small-scale with similar land supply types. In conclusion, the determination of marketization weight of different land supply types should take into account the practical effect of each supply type every year; the scale measurement method based on dynamic coefficient, which is developed from the perspective of highlighting land capital and uses transaction price value per area of granting through bidding, auction and listing as the measurement of complete marketization and the ratio of actual land supply revenue to land revenue under complete maketization, can more objectively and comprehensively reflect the degree of land marketization and can be applied to land marketization analysis of long time series under different scales.