经济制度变迁与中国经济增长——基于1952～2010年数据的分类检验

Economic Institutional Transition and Chinese Economic Growth——Classification Test Based on the Data from 1952 to 2010

本文运用时间序列分析中的协整检验、格兰杰因果检验及向量误差修正模型等方法,实证分析了经济制度变迁三个分类指标在1952～2010年各自对中国经济增长的贡献。结论显示:三个分类指标均与中国经济增长之间存在显著的格兰杰因果关系;长期来看,产权多元化程度、对外开放程度及分配格局变化都与人均产出存在协整关系,也都能够有效促进人均产出的增加;短期来看,对外开放程度及分配格局变化对人均产出具有显著的正向影响,而产权多元化程度的正向影响则十分有限。

Based on cointegration test,Granger test and Vector error correction model in the time series analysis model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the economy contribution made by three classification indexes of economic institu- tion transition from 1952 to 2010. The result suggests that there is a Granger causality between all the three classification in- dexes and Chinese economic growth. In long term, there is a cointegration relationship among diversification of property right, degree of opening up, and distribution system evolution and output per capita. And the former three factors can facilitate the growth of output per capita. In short term, there is an obvious positive impact of the degree of opening up and distribution evolution on output per capita, however ,the positive impact of the degree of diversification of property right is limited