基于烤烟收购量的收购风险发生规律初探

Study on Tobacco Acquisition Risk Occurrence Using Acquisition Quantity

烤烟收购模式的发展无疑是现代烟草农业建设最为关键的环节之一。针对当前收购工作中存在的管理、技术等风险,通过调查某地烤烟收购期间的收购数据,以收购指数为突破点,探析了烤烟收购风险发生的规律。91个日收购风险有极大差异。13个周收购风险呈抛物线型变化。3个月收购风险呈沙漏型分布。其中,周收购指数具有变化规律性强、灵敏度高、识别周期便于操作等特点,可作为收购风险识别监测的主要量化指标。利用收购指数为主的指标体系,发现烤烟收购风险发生具有变异性、阶段性、规律性等特点,为烤烟收购风险管理模式的建立提供了理论依据。

It is critical to modernize the acquisition of tobacco in modern tobacco agriculture. This study investigated the data of tobacco acquisition. The risk occurrence of tobacco acquisition was established by using acquisition index. Acquisition risk of 91 days had great differences. Acquisition risk of 13 weeks was regular variation. Acquisition risk of 3 mouths was hourglass distribution. Due to high regularity and sensitivity and proper recognition cycle, weekly tobacco acquisition index was used as key parameter to monitor acquisition risk. The results showed that risk occurrence of tobacco acquisition was variable, periodic and regular, which supported tobacco acquisition risk management.