“7.3”成都短时强降水可预报性和地面中尺度特征分析

Analysis on the Predictability and Mesoscale Characteristics of "7.3"Short-time Heavy Rain in Chengdu

2011年"7.3"成都短时强降水是在有利的大尺度环流背景和高低空要素配合下产生的,分析常规观测资料可以预判出成都及其周边区域具有强降水发生的有利条件;地面加密自动站观测的风场辐合区对强降水的落区及移动具有指示意义,地面变压场的正负变压区表明重力波的传播和频散是中尺度系统发生发展的重要因素。

The ＂7.3＂ short -time heavy rainfall is appeared by the favourable background of large -scale circulation and meteorological element, there are some favorable conditions by analysis of the conventional observation ; the observation data of the mesoscale convergence in surface automatic meteorological station has premonitory for the heavy precipitation , the surface observation data of the positive - negative＇variable pressure show the gravity wave is the important factors for the mesoscale sys- tem.