摘要
文章基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,选取中国1999-2010年的季度时间序列数据,采用单位根、协整及Granger检验对中国股票市场发展和经济增长的相关关系进行实证研究。实证结果表明中国的经济增长与股票市场发展之间存在长期均衡关系;Granger因果关系检验进一步说明股票市场发展各指标变量之间不存在明显因果关系。因此,建议通过完善股票市场发展的相关机制,遏制过度投机行为与非理性市场操作,实现股票市场发展与经济增长的良性互动。
The paper adopts chronological season data from 1999 to 2010, and uses Unit Root, Co-integration and Granger Test to operate the empirical analysis on the relativity between China＇ s stock market and its economic growth. The results are as follows ： China＇ s stock market and its economic growth remains a long-equilibrium relationship ; Granger Causality Test furthermore illustrates that there is no obvious causality relationship among all the development indexes. Therefore, it is suggested that the stock market should be modified by suppressing the speculative behavior and irrational market opera- tion; a virtuous circle between stock market and economic growth can be achieved.
出处
《技术与创新管理》
2012年第4期409-413,共5页
Technology and Innovation Management
