基于马尔可夫链的易变性职业转移模型研究

Research on Protean Career Mobility Model Based on Markov Chain Approach

当传统职业生涯逐渐向易变性职业生涯转变,职业的转移为多方向性、动态性和不可预测性.基于职业发展的混沌理论,尝试探索易变性职业路径规律的定量描述,将易变性职业看成一随机过程,运用马尔可夫链模型,选取营销资深人员的职业路径作为研究样本,建立易变性职业转移模型,并进行算例分析,从而得到职业转移"整体模式稳定性"的规律.结果显示易变性职业转移模型具有良好的适用性,该职业转移模型在理论上是对易变性职业生涯定量研究的有益补充,并在人力资源领域,特别是揭示人才成长规律方面具有实践意义.

With the traditional career change to the protean one , the transforming careers become multidirectional , dynamic and unpredictable.Based on stochastic theory , the mathematical patterns were set up to revealing protean career transformation law.Tracking randomness of the protean career by using the Markov chain , the protean career mobility model was set up to reflect its overall stability by giving marketing seniority as the application of the model.The conclusion showed that the protean career mobility model had good applicability.The model contributes to the quantitative study of a protean career. The exploratory findings have important application in human recourse management , specifically in revealing the law of talents growth.