对马克思相对过剩人口理论的发展与验证——基于中国就业状况的实证研究

On the Development and Verification of Marx's Relative Surplus Population Theory——An Empirical Study based on the Employment Situation of China

本文通过对马克思"相对过剩人口"理论的分析,结合中国实际,对其进行了发展,将相对过剩人口分为相对过剩人口Ⅰ和相对过剩人口Ⅱ;运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法计算出了相对过剩人口Ⅱ量,在理论上证明了其在中国确实存在;通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用脉冲响应函数、Granger因果关系检验对经济增长与名义就业量、有效就业量分别进行了分析,最后得出一些结论。

Through an analysis of Marx＇s relative surplus population theory,based on the real situation of China,this paper further develops this theory from following aspects： dividing relative surplus population theory into relative surplus population I and relative surplus population II;calculating the quantity of relative surplus population with the method of DEA;proving its existence in China in theory;analyzing economic increasing and name employment as well as effective employment by establishing VAR model and applying impulse response function,granger cause and effect relation verification.Based on the above study,this paper comes to conclusions in the end.