海岸带陆源水污染负荷模型研究

Land-Based Water Pollution Load Model of Coastal Zone

综合采用GM(1,1)模型和曲线拟合法,建立了适合海岸带的陆源水污染负荷预测模型,并将其应用于烟台市,对2009—2013年的主要污染负荷量进行了预测。结果表明:在点源污染负荷中,生活废水所占比例最大,政府应当加强生活用水管理;工业废水污染负荷总体呈增大趋势,但万元产值工业废水排放量逐年下降;旅游废水污染负荷所占比例最小,但近年来增长迅速;生活废水排放的氮磷占点源氮磷污染总负荷的66%,是氮磷的主要来源之一,而农业非点源中的畜禽养殖废水排放氮磷占总氮磷污染负荷的一半以上,具有最大的氮磷污染潜在隐患。

By the methods of grey prediction model GM（1,1） and curve fitting method,a model applicable to coastal zone was established to estimate the water pollution load of land source.The model was applied to Yantai City to forecast the main pollution load in the following five years（2009-2013） in the current level of development.The conclusions are： domestic wastewater occupies the largest proportion of point source pollution,the management of which should be strengthened by government;industrial wastewater discharge per ten thousand RMB production value reduces yearly,at the same time,its total discharge goes up year by year;tourism wastewater is increasing rapidly although its discharge ratio is the least;nitrogen and phosphorus in domestic wastewater discharge accounts for 66% of the total load of point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution,and more than half of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution load is discharged by livestock wastewater,which has the largest potential risk of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution.