可变模糊评价法在沿海经济带水资源可持续利用评价中的应用

Application of variable fuzzy assessment method in evaluation of sustainable utilization of water resources in coastal economic zone of Liaoning Province

沿海经济带水资源可持续利用评价对我国社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。以辽宁省沿海经济带为例,选取人均水资源可利用量、人均供水量、耕地灌溉率、水资源利用率、万元工业产值需水量、需水模数、生活需水定额7个评价指标,利用可变模糊评价法对辽宁省沿海经济带的水资源可持续利用进行评价。结果表明,按现有技术条件发展,研究区的水资源可持续利用呈下降趋势。

Seven evaluation facts are selected,that is,mean available amount of water resources,mean amount of water supply,irrigation ratio of arable land,utilization rate of water resources,water demand per 10 000 industrial product value,water demand modulus and quota of living water use.The system dynamics model is employed to simulate the above factors in the coastal economic zone of Liaoning Province in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020.According to the simulated results,the variable fuzzy model is adopted to assess the sustainable utilization of water resources in the coastal economic zone of Liaoning Province.The results show that the sustainable utilization of water resources in this area has a tendency of decrease in terms of the development under the current technical conditions.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures are proposed.