从A股滚动投资回报现状看我国寿险资金投资策略

The Life Insurance Investment Strategy based on the A-share Rolling Investment Returns

对我国20年来A股滚动5年～15年的年均、月均回报率进行计算后发现其呈现以下特征:一是随着滚动时间的拉长,投资收益率的波动状况越来越平稳;二是当滚动投资期限拉长到15年(180月)以上后,股票投资的收益率在所有滚动年份(月份)均高于同期银行存款利率;三是无论采用何种滚动方式,股票投资平均收益率均远高于同期银行存款利率。结合我国A股历史滚动收益状况和寿险资金的特征,提出了寿险资金的大面积性、长期性、滚动性和周期性等四种投资策略。本文的研究结论对寿险投资、机构投资和政府监管具有重要的启示作用和现实意义。

This paper calculated the monthly average and annual average rolling investment returns of the stock market of China over the 5 - 15 year periods. It found out that：The longer the rolling periods, the more stability of investment returns of overall A share market;When the rolling periods are longer than 10 （ 180 months） years, the o- verall investment returns of A share market are always higher than the bank deposit rates over the same periods ; The overall average rolling investment returns are always higher than the bank deposit rates regardless of the forms of rolling. Based on A share market＇s historical rolling investment returns and the characteristics of life insurance funds, this paper offered several life insurance investment strategies as follows ： the large number investment strategy, the long-term investment strategy, the rolling investment strategy and the cyclical investment strategy. This paper has important implications for investors and the government.