几种数值预报模式在广西降水预报效果的比较

Comparison on Precipitation Forecast Effects of Several Numerical Prediction Models in Guangxi

根据最近5年的降水资料和T213、日本、德国三家数值模式降水预报产品,对三家数值模式在广西晴雨预报和降水分级预报的能力进行分析、比较,结果表明,T213模式的暴雨预报能力最强,日本模式在大雨及以下各级降水预报中预报能力最强,但降水的量级比实况偏小;德国模式对晴雨预报,特别是无雨天气预报能力明显高于日本模式和T213模式。

According to the precipitation forecast products in the last five years from such numerical model as T213,Japan and Germany,the forecast abilities of cloud-free rainfall and the precipitation classification of the three numerical model were analyzed. The results show that the storm （the heavy rain and following all levels of precipitation） forecast capability of the T213 （Japanese） model is the best. The cloud-free rainfall forecast capability of German model is significantly higher then that of Japanese model and T213 model, especially for the non-rainy weather.