1961—2010年台山市降水变化趋势分析

Analysis on Trend of Precipitation in Taishan City from 1961 to 2010

利用1961～2010年降水资料,采用线性拟合和MK检验法分析了台山市多年降水变化特征,结果发现:近50a台山市的年降水量整体上呈增加的变化趋势,但增加的趋势并不明显。与之相反,台山市近50a年的降水日数整体上呈显著减少的趋势。台山市的极端日降水总是出现在4～10月,其中5月和9月出现年极端日降水的概率最大,其分别对应华南前汛期和华南后汛期暴雨较多的时期。M-K突变检验表明,从1961至2010年台山市的降水日数在1998年出现突变,而年降水量没有明显的突变年份。

Basing the precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 in Taishan city, using the linear fitting and Mann-Kendall methods, the trend of precipitation was studied. It shows that the precipitation （the rainy days） shows an obscure increasing （obvious decreasing） trend in recent 50 years. The extreme daily rainfall in Taishan city, always appears during April to October. The maximum probability of extreme daily precipitation is likely in May and September, respectively corresponding to the period of the First/ After Rainy Season of South China. And the Mann-Kendall mutation test shows that the rainy days （the precipitation） show a abrupt change （no obvious mutation ） in 1998（ in recent 50 years）.