全民健身系统可持续发展的系统动力学模型及其仿真实证研究

System Dynamics Model of Nationwide Fitness System with Sustainable Development and Its Simulated Empirical Analysis

以系统动力学为指导,以"社会健身总人口"为核心状态变量,以Vensim PLE为工具,通过绘制因果关系图、流图,并编写系统动力学方程式,建立全民健身系统可持续发展的系统动力学模型。以济南市为例进行模拟仿真实证研究,结果提示:应适当增加全民健身投资,注重全民健身群体建设,增强群体的吸引力和凝聚力,调整健身资源结构。

Under the guidance of system dynamics,with the total of participants in physical fitness as core variable,this paper uses the tool of Vensim PLE to draw the casual relationship diagram,flow chart and write system dynamics equations,thus to establish the system dynamics model of nationwide fitness system with sustainable development.The simulated-empirical research of Jinan City shows that investment in nationwide fitness should be properly increased;the importance should be attached to the mass construction of nationwide fitness to improve the attraction and cohesion of the masses;and on the other hand the structure of physical fitness resources should be adjusted.