食品安全事件后消费者购买恢复及恢复速度影响因素分析——以三聚氰胺事件为例

An Analysis of the Purchasing Power Recovery after the Un-safety Food Incident—Based on the Melamine-contaminated Milk Powder Incident

以三聚氰胺事件为例,采用Heckman两阶段模型对北京、天津和石家庄市消费者的乳制品购买恢复和恢复速度进行了实证分析。结果显示,(1)有老人的家庭对乳制品的购买恢复越容易;(2)消费者非常信赖政府监管部门对食品的监督;(3)食品安全事故发生地石家庄消费者的消费恢复明显慢于非事故地区北京和天津;(4)消费者在做消费恢复决策中,收入越高,越容易做出不恢复消费的决策。但是,一旦消费者作出恢复的决策,将以一个非常快的速度恢复到以前的消费水平。

This paper, taking the melamine-contaminated milk powder incident for example, analyzes the purchasing milk powder recovery and the recovery rate of dairy products in the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, with the Heckman two-stage estimation. The results are as follows,（1） Family with the elderly are much more inclined to purchase the dairy products after the incident. （2） Consumers trust in the supervision of government in food. （3） The purchasing power recovery rate in Shijiazhuang, where the melamine-contaminated milk power incident happened, is much slower than that of Beijing and Tianjin. （4） Consumers with higher income are inclined not to purchase the related un-safety food in future. However, once consumers make decisions to trust the products once more, then the purchasing power will be resumed to the previous level soon.