中国经常账户失衡问题研究——基于金融发展程度-消费-经常账户路径

Research on the Current Account Imbalance Along the Path of the Degree of Financial Development,Consumption and Current account

本文沿着金融发展程度-消费-经常账户失衡的路径对中国经常账户失衡问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论分析结果表明,一国的经常账户余额/GDP受消费率的影响,而一国的消费率又受一国金融发展程度的影响。在此基础上,本文运用联立方程的方法对我国金融发展程度、消费、经常账户失衡三者的动态关系进行了实证分析。实证分析的结果表明,中国经常账户的失衡受消费率显著负向影响,而消费率受金融发展程度的显著影响。在对金融发展程度变量的处理上,本文选取了代表金融发展的10个指标,对这些金融发展代理变量进行主成分分析,通过提取它们的第一主成分、第二主成分来获得一个金融发展的综合变量,从而避免某单一变量或几个变量代表性不足的问题。最后,文章提出了相关建议。

The article analyzes the imbalance of China＇s current account along the path of the degree of financial development, consumption and the imbalance of current account. The results of theoretical analysis show that the imbalance of China＇s current account is affected by the consumption rate, while the consumption rate in turn is affected by the degree of financial development. On this basis, the article analyzes the dynamic relationship between the degree of financial development, consumption and the imbalance of current account by simultaneous equations. The results show that： the consumption rate has a significant negative impact on the imbalance of China＇s current account and the degree of financial development has a significant impact on the rate of consumption. Referring to the handling of the degree of financial development, the article selects 10 indicators representing financial development, and obtains a financial development integrated variable （FINANCE） by extracting their first and second principal components, thus avoiding the risk of lacking the representation of one or several variables. Finally, the article puts forward the relevant recommendation.