后金融危机时代实体经济的发展

Real Economy Development in Post Financial Crisis Era

金融危机远未结束,但世界经济增长是可以预期的。除了一些较小的欧洲国家之外,收入下降充其量也只是个小问题,最大的问题是失业,失业本身具有很大的危害性。欧元区要实现经济复苏,政府开支应该增加5%左右。世界需求的减少对中国经济的影响是有限的,当出口急剧下降时,中国经济以几乎相同的速度继续增长。中国目前已进入设计和创新更为重要的阶段,应该更多地发明自己的技术,创造自己的品牌,设计自己原创的产品。中国应该没有劳动力短缺的问题,但教育非常重要。到2020年之前,中国经济增长将减缓。未来除了人们的收入会增加之外,一切都是不确定的。

Financial crisis is far from finish; there are significant regional differences in its real influence. Except for some small European countries, the decreasing income is at most a tiny problem; the most serious problem is unemployment. To realize economic recover, government expenses in Eurozone should be increased by 5%. At present, China has already entered into a more important stage of design and innovation; it should invent more, establish its own brand, and design its own original products. There is no the problem of labor shortage in China, but the issues of education is very critical for China. By the end of 2020, the economic growth in China will slow down; except for the increasing income, anything else will be uncertain.