近30年中国玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征

Characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of maize climate productivity during last 30 years in China

气候变化背景下中国玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势及其空间差异值得关注。在1981年-2010年日气象数据、玉米生育期数据和土壤数据基础上,该文采用GIS技术和AEZ模型结合的方法,模拟了30a平均中国玉米生产潜力和中国玉米生产潜力变化趋势。研究得出:近30a中国春玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势为每5a变化-887～1689kg/hm2,空间差异明显,东北地区西部、黄淮海平原北部和黄土高原部分地区气候生产潜力呈降低趋势,黄淮海地区南部和南方绝大部分地区呈增加趋势。中国夏玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势为每5a变化-589～1768kg/hm2,除黄淮海平原北部呈降低趋势外,其他地区夏玉米气候生产潜力呈增加趋势。中国春玉米、夏玉米气候生产潜力呈下降趋势地区玉米光温生产潜力在近30a显著增加,气候干旱化是主要影响因素。该研究可为中国玉米生产宏观决策提供支持。

Based on daily observation data, growth stage data of maize and soil data, the GIS technology and AEZ model were used to simulate the average maize climate productivity and its change trend in China from 1981 to 2010. The results showed that the change trend of spring maize climate productivity was between -887 to 1 689 kg/（hm2.5a）; The areas with decreasing trend were mainly distributed in the west part of the Northeast China, the north part of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Loess Plateau Regions. The change trend of summer maize climate productivity was between -589 to 1 768 kg/（hm2.5a）; Except for the north part of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, all other regions in China showed an increasing tendency. The photosynthesis and temperature productivity of spring maize and summer maize in the region where maize climate productivity had a decreasing tendency increased evidently from 1981 to 2010. Drying trend of climate was the main driving force of maize productivity fluctuations. The research can provide a reference for overall policy decision of maize production in China.